What is the Kanban Estimate? A Guide to the Japanese Visual Management Method

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The Problem : The Problem with estimating project work is the uncertainty of future events. To account for this, estimates are considered to be guesses about the future. This could lead to inaccurate planning and loss of money.

The Background Story : Kanban Estimate was created by Takashi Furukawa, a Japanese web application developer who was unsatisfied with the other estimation methods he had seen in his career. These included story points , T-Shirt Sizing , and Planning Poker . Kanban Estimate builds on top of these estimation techniques by accounting for team velocity while also retaining their scalability .

How Does it Work? : Kanban Estimate works similarly to Planning Poker by having members guess how long they believe a task will take to complete. 

However, instead of voting on a number, members use the Kanban Estimation method to provide an estimation range. To do this:

1. Team members write their name and pick a point in time (eg: 1-2 weeks) for the task to be completed (this is typically after it’s been broken down into subtasks).

2. Once everyone has done this, each member moves their card to they left or right depending on whether they think the estimate is too long or short, respectively.

3. After moving your card twice more , add up all of the cards and you’ll have a rough idea of when the project will be completed*. *The company wants you to believe that Kanban Estimate gives you an accurate idea of when the project will be completed, but this is not true.

On average, teams using Kanban Estimate are able to get within 37% of their final estimation which is better than Planning Poker by 2%. This method was designed for larger teams because it scales well with team size. However, if you try to use this method on a small scale, your results may vary. Check out the table below (taken from LeanKit’s website) for more details:

Using Kanban Estimate : Kanban Estimation works best when projects are decomposed into granular subtasks . When tasks are decomposed like this they allow team members to make more accurate estimates which makes this method scalable. Additionally, during each task, team members should re-estimate the time left to complete it. Doing this will allow them to get an idea of how accurate their initial estimate was and help them in the future when they have a better understanding of what they’re doing.

Kanban Estimation can be used in conjunction with other methods like T-Shirt Sizing , Planning Poker , and Story Points . However, the Kanban Estimate doesn’t work well in a busy environment where there are constantly new tasks being assigned because it has no mechanism for dealing with changes in requirements. To solve this issue consider using Burn Down or Cumulative Flow which both focus on measuring project progress rather than trying to predict it. This is important because one of the principles behind Lean methodologies is going from being “right” to being “Right-Now.”

One of the best parts about Kanban Estimate is that it allows members to be honest about how long something will take. Unlike other forms of estimation, this lets them say “I don’t know” without feeling like they’re letting their team down. This is especially useful in companies where there are few people with in-depth knowledge of a project because they can avoid making inaccurate guesses based on assumptions or incomplete information.

So How Does this App Work? : Like most apps that try to simplify complicated concepts (see Trello), LeanKit’s Kanban Estimation app provides an easy way for teams to use this method when estimating work. It supports multiple projects and kanban board views which makes it easy for teams to update estimates according to their workflow.

It also provides you with tools for creating basic reports which show the average estimation time for tasks as well as past estimates compared to actual completion times. This is useful for measuring project performance against your original estimations, but it doesn’t capture all of the information that you need to make informed decisions about how much work should be assigned in the future.

One other downside worth mentioning is that this application lacks some of the more advanced features associated with similar software . The strength of Kanban Estimate lies in its simplicity so these limitations are not surprising or unexpected. However, if you find yourself wanting more functionality out of your app then LeanKit may not be right for you.

Who Should Use This App? : LeanKit’s Kanban Estimate app was designed for larger teams which need an accurate way to estimate project durations. However, if you work with a small group of people, this method may not be for you because it scales poorly. This is why LeanKit recommends using T-Shirt Sizing or Story Points instead.

What are T-Shirt Sizes? : T-shirt sizes are general terms that provide team members with relative sizing information (like “small” and “large”), but they’re more specific than vague words like “tiny” and “enormous”. Like Kanban Estimation, the simplicity behind t-shirts makes them useful when time is limited because they can be quickly explained to new teammates.